One of Wall Street’s most veteran strategists wants investors to keep the faith.
Wunderlich Chief Market Strategist Art Hogan is arguing there’s years left in this bull market.
“It’s just a non-believer’s market, and that reflects itself in retail participation, institutional cash on the sidelines — all those things that show you that there never really has been a great deal of confidence all the way up here,” said Hogan on Friday’s “Trading Nation.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed out the week on a high note. The index saw its 17th record close so far this year, which hasn’t happened since March 1.
“We went through such an emotional financial crisis. People are just so disenchanted with the fact of how far the financial system erupted, and the market went down… No one really believes the recovery,” Hogan added. “People have said ‘we’ve come too far, too fast,’ and ‘we’ve got to retrace some of this move.’“
However, Hogan believes the current bull market could be your grandfather’s bull market — one that could still be in its early stages.
“If you look at the four longest bull markets in terms of duration and percentage moves, we’re in third place right now. So in terms of length and certainly in terms of percentage moves, I think we haven’t run out of runway,” noted Hogan.
“I think that’s one of the misconceptions that investors have all the time — that bull markets somehow die of old age. They don’t,” he said. “They often times think they die because valuations get out of control. We’re nowhere close to that.”
Recessions stop bull markets, and Hogan says the odds are low one will happen over at least the next 12 months.
“The fundamental backdrop is good, both on earnings and the economic data in general. That will continue to be a driver here, ” he said.
Yet, Hogan acknowledged the rally is facing some near-term risks, which includes North Korea’s missile launches, elections overseas and new potential controversies surrounding White House policies.
He also isn’t banking on Washington to pass any meaningful business friendly measures like tax cuts this year.
“The tricky part is if you were trying to calculate any benefit from fiscal policy stimulus, that’s probably 2018’s business, and the good news is that’s okay because we probably don’t need it until then to begin with,” Hogan said, who expects the current environment to keep giving stocks a boost.
“It certainly doesn’t mean it’s time to hit the exits.”